Leon's Furniture Ltd
TSX:LNF
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Q3-2025 Earnings Call
AI Summary
Earnings Call on Nov 7, 2025
Sales Growth: System-wide sales rose 3.7% and same-store sales increased 3.9% year-over-year in Q3, showing resilience despite a tough retail environment.
Profitability: Adjusted diluted EPS jumped 20.4% year-over-year, with strong margin expansion driven by furniture sales and cost discipline.
Margins: Gross profit margin improved by 79 basis points to 44.6%, supported by a favorable category mix and better sourcing.
SG&A Leverage: SG&A as a percentage of revenue improved by 14 basis points, aided by lower retail financing fees from falling interest rates.
Inventory & Liquidity: Inventory levels are healthy heading into year-end, and unrestricted liquidity stands at $549.6 million.
Q4 Outlook: Management expects continued selective consumer spending and some headwinds from the Canada Post strike, but feels well positioned due to improved inventory and digital strategies.
Commercial Business: Commercial channel led appliance growth, but revenue from new developments is expected to moderate as builder pipelines slow into 2026.
Capital Allocation: Focus remains on disciplined reinvestment, potential acquisition opportunities, and growing the regular dividend.
LFL delivered strong top line growth in Q3, with both system-wide and same-store sales rising despite ongoing pressures on discretionary spending. The company noted that Canadians remain value-focused, and its trusted banners are benefiting as consumers seek reliable retailers. However, in-store traffic is flat, with more qualified customers entering stores after first engaging online. Regional demand varied, with Ontario and BC softer, particularly impacted by weaker flyer distribution.
Furniture remained the standout category, benefiting from a focused assortment strategy that emphasized best sellers and value. Furniture is now the company’s largest and most profitable category, helping drive both sales and margin gains. Appliance sales also performed well, especially in the commercial channel, though management expects new development-driven growth to moderate into 2026.
Gross profit margin expanded by 79 basis points to 44.6%, largely due to higher-margin furniture sales, better sourcing, and disciplined promotion. SG&A as a percentage of revenue improved by 14 basis points, helped by lower retail financing fees resulting from declining interest rates. Management expects to maintain much of this margin improvement, albeit with some variability as they balance promotional investments.
The company’s omnichannel platform is driving store conversions, with the website serving as a qualification funnel for high-intent shoppers. Management highlighted improved average transaction value and conversion rates, partly due to strategic digital engagement and in-store financing offers. These efforts are compensating for softer overall foot traffic.
Inventory levels are healthy heading into the year-end, with previous freight disruptions now resolved. The company has improved its written-to-delivered sales timelines and is well stocked in key categories. No significant supply constraints are expected for the remainder of the year.
The retail environment remains highly promotional, especially in mattresses and appliances. The ongoing Canada Post strike is creating headwinds for promotional flyer distribution, with management reallocating marketing funds to digital and other channels. Consumer confidence and discretionary spending are still cautious, contributing to a selective spending environment.
LFL continues to prioritize reinvestment in core operations, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and opportunistic buybacks. Liquidity is robust at $549.6 million, supporting agility in M&A or other investments. The company’s criteria for acquisitions include strong management, growth potential, and potential synergies with its ecosystem, including warranty and insurance services.
The insurance and warranty businesses saw double-digit year-to-date growth and rising attachment rates, both within LFL stores and through external partnerships. Management sees further opportunity to expand these profitable, capital-light offerings.
Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the LFL Group Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Jonathan Ross, Investor Relations for LFL Group. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good day, everyone. And welcome to LFL Group's third quarter 2025 conference call and webcast. LFL's Q3 2025 financial results were released yesterday. The press release, financial statements and management's discussion and analysis are available on SEDAR+ and on our website at lflgroup.ca. Joining me on the call today are Mike Walsh, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Victor Diab, Chief Financial Officer.
Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current assumptions and beliefs and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage listeners to refer to the risk factors outlined in our management's discussion and analysis and annual information form, which provide additional detail on the risks and uncertainties that could affect future results.
This call also includes non-IFRS financial measures. Definitions, reconciliations and related disclosures for these measures can be found in the management's discussion and analysis and press release issued yesterday. Forward-looking statements made during this call are current as of today and LFL Group disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise them, except as required by applicable law. All financial figures discussed today are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mike Walsh to discuss our third quarter results.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This is our first quarterly call, and we appreciate you being here. We're looking forward to using this format to provide more regular insight into our performance, our strategy and how we're thinking about the business going forward. So let's get right into the quarter.
We delivered strong top line performance in the third quarter with system-wide and same-store sales up 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively. I am particularly pleased with our continued performance given the broader backdrop. Consumer discretionary spending remains pressured and the retail environment continues to be highly promotional. Canadians are looking for value from retailers they trust and our strategy is built to outperform when value matters most, and we're seeing that play out in the numbers.
Even more importantly, we continue to translate our top line momentum into profitability growth. Adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 20.4% year-over-year, reflecting not just sales strength, but disciplined execution across sourcing, category management, promotional optimization and cost control.
Underpinning our third quarter performance is the consistency of our execution and the strength of our platform. Our scale enables us to negotiate directly with suppliers and secure advantaged pricing. Our banners are trusted by Canadians coast-to-coast. And our integrated logistics network, including one of the largest final mile delivery systems in the country, gives us a level of service differentiation that's difficult for others to replicate. These are durable strengths that position us to win across cycles and help us continue to take share.
Furniture was once again the standout category in Q3, supported by our focused assortment strategy. We've narrowed the range, gone deeper in our best sellers and leaned into categories where we can offer real value. This laser focus on solidifying our leadership in this most important category continues to deliver results. Furniture is our largest and highest margin category and in the current environment represented the most effective opportunity to gain share.
Our performance in furniture is a result of the deliberate and disciplined execution of our strategy, prioritizing areas of our business with the greatest near-term opportunity, while continuing to advance our broader categories.
While industry-wide traffic headwinds have continued, we maintained our focus on maximizing every customer interaction. Both average transaction value and conversion rate strengthened during the quarter. In our stores, we're seeing more purposeful visits translate directly into purchase activity. Our omnichannel infrastructure is instrumental here. We're strategically utilizing our digital ecosystem, not only as a revenue channel, but as a qualification funnel that delivers customers with clear purchase intent.
Once in the stores, our highly trained sales associates and attractive financing offers work together to drive a stronger average transaction size and higher total ticket profitability. Our overall appliance business was also strong in the quarter led by the commercial channel, as has been the case for the past several quarters.
We continue to deliver on projects booked over the past couple of years. And while we're mindful that builder pipelines are slowing across the board as we approach 2026, our team is laser-focused on continuing to gain traction in the replacement market, especially with property managers. That's a segment we believe can be a more meaningful contributor over time. And our warranty and insurance businesses remain a key part of our value proposition. These are profitable, capital-light businesses that support the core and extend our relationship with the customer. We also continue to see strong attachment rates and growth in these business lines and we believe there's more opportunity to grow these platforms, both inside and outside the LFL ecosystem.
From a capital allocation standpoint, our priorities remain consistent. We're focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and reinvesting in the business where we see attractive returns. We remain attuned to potential acquisition opportunities that could enhance the long-term value of the company and we continue to grow our regular dividend over time.
Our retail store count remained consistent from last quarter at 300 stores, including 201 corporate stores and 99 franchise stores. As we continue to optimize our footprint, it's worth reiterating that our strategy is not about maximizing store count. Our stores are designed to be destinations with larger catchment areas and a focus on delivering a full-service experience that drives meaningful returns.
We evaluate every investment through the lens of a 4-wall profitability and long-term value creation. That discipline is reflected in how we approach new locations, renovations and reopenings. It's also why we're comfortable growing selectively rather than chasing unit expansion for its own sake.
Now looking ahead to the fourth quarter and into early 2026, we expect consumer confidence and discretionary spending to remain selective. Consumers are being careful with their dollars, but they are spending. The environment remains dynamic. Similar to last year, the Canada Post disruption is creating near-term headwinds during a very important promotional period.
While this does affect all retailers that rely on flyer distribution, we remain competitively well positioned. We faced a similar situation late in the fourth quarter of 2024. And while the disruption began earlier this year, we're drawing on last year's experience to adjust quickly. That said, if the strike continues through year-end, we do expect some impact to key promotional events in the quarter.
Before I hand it over to Victor, I truly want to thank our associates across banners and regions from our warehouses to our sales floors to our drivers on the road and the customer service folks manning the phone lines. Their execution in the quarter was outstanding.
Victor will take you through the financial details and provide some additional context on the quarter. I'll come back with a few closing thoughts before we open it up for questions. Victor, over to you.
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As Mike mentioned, we delivered strong top line growth in Q3 with system-wide sales up 3.7%, revenue up 4.1% and same-store sales up 3.9%. From a category standpoint, furniture was a key contributor. We also saw continued strength in appliances, led by our commercial channel, which added to growth this quarter. That strength was driven by the delivery of previously booked projects, particularly in multiunit residential as we continue to fulfill orders tied to developments moving through to completion, despite a softer new construction market.
We expect revenue from developers, in particular, to begin moderating as we move into 2026 and we're certainly seeing that across the market. Our team is actively working to increase our share of the replacement business where we're seeing good traction with property managers. But it will take time for that portion of the business to catch up with the new build market, which is lumpier, but can be meaningful as we have seen this year as builders finish up projects.
Gross profit margin expanded by 79 basis points year-over-year to 44.6%. This improvement reflects both the impact of higher-margin furniture sales and our continued focus on strengthening sourcing and vendor relationships. We've deepened relationships with our top vendors and increased purchasing penetration through our First Ocean subsidiary, driving improved cost efficiencies and supply consistency. At the same time, disciplined promotional activity and optimized pricing strategies have supported margin performance across categories.
As we move into the end of the year and early 2026, gross margin will continue to be influenced by category mix, promotional intensity and our ongoing sourcing work. We're always looking for opportunities to drive improvement, but we also take a balanced and dynamic approach. We'll make the investments necessary to drive traffic and market share when it makes sense to do so. That's just part of how we manage the business.
SG&A rate was 35.51% of revenue, an improvement of 14 basis points year-over-year. This improvement was driven by lower retail financing fees due to declining interest rates. This helped offset expected increases in advertising costs due to event timing shifts as well as higher occupancy expenses from the Edmonton D.C. lease commencement and other facility renewals. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.65, up 20.4% compared to last year.
We're also pleased with where inventory levels sit today. Freight disruptions that impacted the start of the year are now behind us and our written-to-delivered sales relationship has normalized with a focus on going deeper on certain SKUs, enabling us to improve written-to-delivered timelines. We're in a healthy in-stock position heading into the back half of the year with good availability across key categories, and no material constraints on flow.
From a capital allocation standpoint, I'll build on Mike's comments. Our approach remains disciplined and consistent. We prioritize reinvestment in the business where we see attractive returns, maintain a strong balance sheet and return capital to shareholders over time, primarily through growth in our regular dividend.
Annual maintenance CapEx is running in the range of approximately $35 million to $40 million annually, which supports our ability to continue generating strong free cash flow.
On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $549.6 million in unrestricted liquidity, including cash, marketable securities and our undrawn revolver. That level of flexibility is a strategic asset in this environment. It enables us to stay agile, pursue opportunities as they arise and continue investing in the business without compromising our financial strength. Given our 100-plus year track record of navigating cycles and making the right long-term investments, we're comfortable maintaining the financial flexibility.
We will continue to be opportunistic in our approach to buybacks, taking advantage of volatility where it aligns with our long-term strategy. We did not repurchase any shares under our existing NCIB during the quarter. Overall, we remain confident in our ability to deliver consistent financial performance in the context of the market and versus the industry. Our scale, disciplined sourcing and promotional strategies and solid balance sheet provide the foundation to continue driving profitable growth and shareholder value over the long-term.
Before handing it back to Mike, I'd like to briefly address the previously announced initiatives to create a real estate investment trust. This remains an important strategic priority for us. The timing will be driven by market conditions and regulatory approvals, and we'll share additional updates when appropriate. That's the only update we can provide on today's call.
With that, I'll turn it back to Mike for closing remarks before we open the line for questions.
Thanks, Victor. To wrap up, we're really pleased with how the business performed for the first 9 months of the year. Over that period, we have delivered total system-wide sales growth of 3.5% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 28.7% in a dynamic consumer and industry environment. What's just as important is how we're delivering that performance. We're seeing stronger conversion in our stores, more consistency in execution across banners and better alignment between what customers want and what we're delivering.
That's the outcome of deliberate long-term choices, not quick wins, and it's showing in both our results and how resilient the business has become. We're not immune to the macro, but we are well positioned to navigate it and continue delivering value for our customers and our shareholders. Thanks again for joining us today.
With that, I'll pass it back to the operator for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nevan Yochim with BMO Capital Markets.
Congratulations on a solid quarter and your first conference call. Hoping we could start on the top line here. Are you able to provide an update on quarter-to-date trends? Have you seen the Q3 momentum continue, as well as any detail on your positioning as we move into the important sales and holiday season?
Thanks very much, Nevan. It's great to talk to you and you're the first person asking us a question on the live webcast. So congratulations. Just a little bit on the third quarter. So the consumer still remains very price conscious Value continues to be a key focus area for us and that's how we think we're winning. The Canadian consumer is still looking for a retailer that they know and trust and is going to be around for after sales service.
The trend from the second and third quarter, we're seeing a lot of traffic going to our website and traffic being more like flattish going into the stores. So more qualified customers coming into our stores, allowing our sales associates to spend more time selling the value-added services. We're seeing the attach rates for warranty insurance products are also improving. And so we feel like we're well positioned going into the fourth quarter.
There's still some macro headwinds. You've got the coastal strike affected last year starting around November 15th. This year started near the end of September. So we're feeling good about that. It kind of levels the playing field with all retailers but we learned a lot going through the fourth quarter of last year that we're applying this year.
And maybe just a little bit more on that Canada Post strike. Are you able to parse out what the impact was last year, maybe just a magnitude? And then, how does that flow through the P&L? Is that solely a revenue impact or are there margin pressures there as well?
Great question. I don't think there's margin impact to it. But it's definitely very difficult to quantify what the impact is because last year we were having challenges with inventory position as well. So how much of it was a flyer impact, how much of it was the inventory impact. So really difficult to tell. And then as you pivot going to more ,of a digital way, how much of that did you get a pickup on. So really difficult to quantify the impact of the flyers. But for sure, there is an impact to all retailers, especially when you're a high-low retailer and the consumer is looking for the flyer. It definitely impacts the traffic that's coming to your stores.
Got it. Maybe just one more for me, maybe for Victor. It's nice to see the SG&A leverage again this quarter. You called out lower POS financing fees. As we've seen the Bank of Canada cut rates as recent as just 1 week ago, does that imply you expect this tailwind to continue into the second half of next year?
Great question. Yes, every time the Bank of Canada cuts rates, there's a bit of a delay in terms of when it translates to our numbers, but we'll get a bit more leverage off of that next year. Obviously, most of the cuts happened over the last year and we've benefited from that this year, and we'll see a little bit more of that next year if rates continue to be cut.
Your next question comes from the line of Martin Landry with Stifel.
It's super helpful. I know it's a little bit more work on your end, but for us, it's very much appreciated. My first question, I'd like to understand a little bit how the quarter has evolved. There‘re some retailers that have talked about a strong July and August and a slower September. I was wondering if you've seen any of that dynamic?
I would say we were very happy with the quarter as a whole. I think July and August were super strong. September was a little bit weaker, whether that's due to the postal strike, but definitely, we saw some weakness in September.
And that weakness, is it -- have you seen differences per regions? Has it been Canada-wide or more located in the Central Canada where the manufacturing base is?
Yes. I'd say that the trend continues. Ontario has been softer. And again, the flyer distribution in Ontario is really soft and BC has been soft.
Okay. And then maybe lastly, my last question. I know you mentioned that -- in your opening remarks that the story is not about store openings. But I was just wondering, do you have any plans to increase your network across your banners in the next 12 months?
I would say we don't have anything pending, Martin, but we do have a focus for Leon's in BC. The challenge has been inventory of retail sites. And to be honest with you, it's the leasing cost in BC. There's just no inventory. The Brick continues to focus on the East Coast, but we don't have anything pending. We've got the one store in Welland that we're building. We're probably going to open that in the spring of 2027.
And Martin, just to build on Mike's comments. We've seen a lot of good success with a couple of the new renovations with The Brick opening up in Richmond, we released the release in Kelowna, and we're seeing a lot of good success with some of those renovations. So we're keeping a close eye on that and it's something that we'll look to do more of.
I think the last thing on that is we're really excited because we opened up a store within a store in Richmond, BC with Appliance Canada taking up about 10,000 to 12,000 square feet of Leon store, and we're seeing some good success there. And because Appliance Canada is generally in Ontario, they've got a lot of commercial customers in the East and West. And so we're going to do that as a bit of a test and it may be something that we can do on a broader scale.
Okay. That's helpful. And just to be clear, how many renovations have you done year-to-date?
I would say we've done about 3 major renos year-to-date.
Your next question comes from the line of Jim Byrne with Acumen.
Just maybe on gross margin side. I appreciate the color, Victor. Margins were up about [ 80 ] basis points this quarter and kind of averaged about [ 80 ] so far this year, up over last year. Is that a number that you would kind of expect to continue for the fourth quarter and kind of foreseeable future? Or are there moving parts there that might put some pressure on those margins in the coming quarters?
Jim, thanks for the question for sure. We're very happy with the margin performance year-to-date. A function of 2 things, really very strong furniture mix, that being our highest margin category. When you sell more furniture, you're also selling more furniture warranties, which tends to be accretive to margin as well. And the teams have done a really good job on the rate front from focusing assortment, getting us better leverage with our suppliers, flowing goods, slightly lower freight rates year-over-year. So there's a lot to that.
We don't really comment on a quarter-to-quarter basis. We tend to be very disciplined historically around managing within a certain range. So that's a focus for us. We think we're going to end the year strong overall holistically. There may be puts and takes in terms of investing some margin back into certain categories.
But over the full year, we expect to hold on to some of those gains for sure. And going into next year, again, it's about continuing to edge our margin rate forward. But there will be -- it's never going to be a linear -- just a straight line, there will be ebbs and flows in terms of when we choose to invest that back into the categories.
Okay. That's great. Maybe if you could give any updates on kind of the warehouse initiatives and some of the optimization that you've been working on?
We're still continuing to test and tune and learn. As we spoke about in the previous quarter, we migrated the Mississauga warehouse to surrounding stores and we're still measuring the KPIs on that from customer experience to the time between written-to-delivered.
So still going down that path and analyzing that and we may end up doing another test in the first or second quarter of '26. So stay tuned. But definitely, it's not going to be a short-term project. It's going to be something that's more long-term figuring out how many warehouse stores do we still need to keep and what that looks like. So stay tuned on that.
Okay. And then maybe just, Victor, you kind of mentioned the maintenance cap at $35 million. It looks like you're kind of tracking towards that for this year. It doesn't sound like next year will be much different given the lack of new stores, et cetera. Is that fair to say for 2026?
I think that's fair from like the core CapEx target in line around $35 million to $40 million. I think any strategic initiatives that we do end up moving forward with may be over and above, but we'll keep you posted on that. But I think that's a good target to have in mind for now.
Your next question comes from the line of Ahmed Abdullha with National Bank Capital Markets.
Q4 seems like an easier comp given the inventory dynamic that took place last year. Are you better prepared from an inventory standpoint to drive sequentially improving growth in 4Q?
Ahmed, I appreciate the question. Thanks. A couple of things that we planned going into Q4, and we thought about, obviously. One , being in a much stronger inventory position, which we are and the teams have done a really good job there, and it's paying off for us. And two, we were hopeful that 1 year later, the Canada Post challenges would be behind us, right?
So that unfortunately has kind of been a storyline early into the quarter. Now we will comp being -- having a Canada Post strike later in the quarter but that's certainly going to be an impact there as well. So I think there's different puts and takes. That being said, we feel really well positioned to continue competing for value in the space, but there's a couple of considerations there for you in Q4.
Okay. That's fair. And just -- I know you've mentioned the customer traffic and basket sizes and conversion rates have improved, but I would like just you to touch a bit more on that. Can you give us some sort of magnitude of how much of this quarter's results was driven by perhaps pricing versus volume or, any more specific color around these factors would be appreciated?
Yes. I think you would have seen sort of our furniture performance was really strong in the quarter. I think that's just really driven off of volume and just being really well positioned for value. I think we've got scale advantages there and we've done a really good job around focusing our assortment and being sharp on pricing and promo optimization. So I just think it's more around our go-to-market strategy.
To Mike's point, in-store traffic is softer, but we're seeing really good traffic to and engagement on our websites that are ultimately leading more qualified shoppers into our stores and allowing our folks to drive higher closing ratios. And then, of course, the ancillary businesses along with that, like I mentioned, you're selling more furniture, you're selling more furniture warranty and our attachment rates are going up inside our stores. So it's a function of a bunch of different factors. It's not really on price. We're very focused on being sharp on price and being sharp on our promo strategy, Ahmed. But that's the extent of what I could provide there.
Okay. That's fair. And one last one for me. Your comments of growth rates like moderating in 2026. Are you still budgeting some revenue growth or more of a flat to down next year?
Yes. Like I think -- it's a interesting question, Ahmed. Like as you think about 2026, right, we never go into a year thinking we're not going to grow. Our mindset is always to grow. But we do think about it more along the lines of a 3 to 5-year horizon, have we sustainably grown the business from a top line and bottom line perspective over that period. And that's what we go -- that's our primary goal is to continue to win share. We still feel really well positioned to compete for value.
That being said, a couple of considerations as you think about 2026. We mentioned our commercial business has been on a tremendous run. That's going to normalize a little bit just given the challenges with the development community. So that's something that we're being mindful of. And obviously, at this stage, we're probably going to comp some pretty strong furniture numbers as well. So it's another consideration. But do we believe going into the year we can drive growth? That's always our mindset. But of course, we have to be realistic around some of the considerations I just mentioned.
Your next question comes from the line of Ty Collin with CIBC.
Great to hear from you guys in this format. So just for my first question, can you kind of speak to the different competitive dynamics within your key product categories? It seems like, obviously, mattress and electronics were more promotional, but maybe furniture a bit less so. Can you just help us understand what's going on there? And is the promotional activity being driven by any specific subset of competitors worth noting?
Yes. I mean it's a great question. Look, like we -- over the last couple of years, we've had a really strong focus on the furniture category and being able to position ourselves for value, right? And then -- and we've been seeing really good traction there. I think as it relates to the other categories, we have to be balanced in our approach. So in some cases, it is highly promotional, for example, in retail appliances across the board. More people are doing buy more, save more and things of that nature. That's always been done. It's just being done at a greater magnitude in terms of our observations.
And then, as it relates to mattress, the mattress category, again, very promotional, more promotional than we've seen in the past, and you've got a lot more online players as well in that category.
So we're being selective in terms of, in some cases, whether we want to participate in being more highly promotional. In some cases we're choosing not to, to protect margin. And just given how our overall business is performing, we're kind of -- we're satisfied not doing that. And in some other cases, we've identified opportunities where we can better position ourselves moving forward. So I think it's a combination of those things, Ty.
Yes. And I think just to build on that, because there's no other comp we can really look at in Canada, we think we're winning share in the furniture space, although it's a very fragmented -- the competitors are very fragmented. But definitely, we feel like we're winning share there.
Okay. Got it. Yes. I appreciate that color. And then shifting to the commercial business. So yes, I appreciate that you're trying to diversify that business into the replacement channel. But as you alluded to, condo completions really are kind of expected to fall off a cliff after 2026, should probably be a headwind for you guys, which you mentioned. But I guess I'm just wondering, at what point do you think you might be able to sort of fully offset the lower new build business with replacement business? Or should we kind of expect the commercial business to ultimately take a step back after next year?
Yes, there'll be softening, especially in the Toronto market as it relates to condo, but we still do a lot of housing. We do things other than just condo. And I think we started the thing about 12 months ago migrating to more of the property manager, and we're seeing success at both MidNorthern as well as Appliance Canada. And that's the other reason why we did the store within a store of Appliance Canada. They've got customers in Ontario that are also out West and in the East. And we're feeling pretty strong that they can build on the commercial business as well.
So not sure if I can answer the question on timing, but definitely, we started this some time ago. And we think it will be soft in '26 and '27 and then building back up in '28. But definitely, we've been exploring options about how to compensate for any shortfall in the commercial business.
Okay. Got it. And maybe if I could just sneak in one more and kind of press you guys a little bit on capital allocation. So, I mean, the net cash balance does continue to climb up. I know you've talked about the need to hold on to some of that for maybe potential real estate-related investments and just to remain opportunistic. But given that the time line on some of those more opportunistic investments are ultimately unclear. I mean, at what point would you get more comfortable looking at stepping up, returning some of that capital to shareholders either through a special dividend or buyback activity?
No, I appreciate the question. And yes, you kind of hit it on the nail, right? So we really like our cash and liquidity position right now. It is, by design, building up this year to help us navigate any volatility in the market, but also to be opportunistic. And when we say opportunistic, like we're actively exploring what that could mean for us. So we typically go through our capital allocation funnel around, obviously, first and foremost, investing in our core business, evaluating strategic opportunities, whether that relates to the core of our business or potential M&A opportunities. And then we go down the funnel around returning capital to shareholders. In Q2, we increased our dividend by 20%.
And we have these conversations with -- as a management team and with our Board all the time. And when we built that -- look, we're sitting on too much liquidity and there isn't something imminent. We're not afraid to return capital to shareholders. We've been very consistent with that strategy over many years. So it's just continuing to go through that decision process. At this stage, we feel good about where we are, but we'll keep you posted otherwise.
Your next question comes from the line of Ryland Conrad with RBC.
Congrats on the first conference call. So maybe just continuing that conversation on M&A with the balance sheet in a really healthy spot. Can you maybe just provide an update on the criteria you're looking for and target?
Yes. I would say that we've been reviewing any M&A opportunity for some time. I think our criteria that we look at is, we look at a company that has strong management team, runway for growth, and then lastly, being able to dovetail part of our ecosystem, meaning warranty and insurance into that business. So that's kind of the criteria we're running with. And again, we're very opportunistic. So we're not just going to do something for the sake of doing it. We're going to do it because it's in the best interest of growing our business.
Okay. Great. And then just on the Canada Post strikes, given they're on more of a rotating schedule this year, I believe, are the impacts that you're seeing on flyer distribution, I guess, less meaningful compared to last year?
I -- Yes -- Not -- I would say it's very tough to kind of say because it's just as impactful in terms of being able to get our flyers out. We have to -- when this strike hits, we have to think about alternative routes, right? So whether it's a full strike or a rotating strike, we have to think about, okay, what are different ways we can either get the flyer out or reallocate some of our marketing funds.
So, it's a similar impact this year versus last year in terms of just our ability to get the flyer out. Last year, there was a lot of noise just given the core of the holiday season, our inventory position at that point in time. But like we commented last year, we definitely saw traffic to our stores moderate over that period of time and pockets within our network and regions be more impacted than others depending on our ability to get flyers out.
Now we're obviously not just sitting on our hands and the teams are working really hard to try and reallocate those marketing funds. It's just -- it's not going to be as high of an ROI relative to the flyer channel, because each channel has its kind of own unique ROI. So if you put an extra dollar in TV, for example, it's not going to do as much for you as $1 in a flyer just given there's diminishing returns with each of the channels. So that's the dynamic that we're competing with.
Okay. Very helpful. And then I guess just last for me. Can you talk a bit to your insurance business and just how conversion rates have been trending following the expansion into new categories earlier this year?
Yes. I mean if you -- our insurance business has done really well this year. I think if you look at our year-to-date growth for the insurance business, it's up double-digits. We feel really good about our attachment rates in stores, and frankly, just the traction we've gained growing that business outside of our own ecosystem. The team continues to work really hard to increase penetration of products with some of our existing partners.
For example, you'll start off on a typical -- putting insurance on a typical loan product, then you'll talk to some of our partners around putting an insurance product on a mortgage, et cetera, et cetera. So we're deepening some of those relationships with some of our partners and we continue to explore new partnerships. So we feel really good about the attachment in store and what we've seen this year and our ability to grow it outside our network.
There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.