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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
F:ZTOB

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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
F:ZTOB
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Price: 19.4 EUR -2.51% Market Closed
Market Cap: €15.6B

DCF Value

This DCF valuation model was created by Alpha Spread and was last updated on May 10, 2026.

Estimated DCF Value of one ZTOB stock is 31.31 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 19.4 EUR, the stock is Undervalued by 38%.

ZTOB DCF Value
31.31 EUR
Undervaluation 38%
DCF Value
Price €19.4
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
31.31
DCF Value
Bear Case
Base Case
Bull Case
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DCF Value: 31.31 EUR

Present Value Calculation

This block is the starting point of the DCF valuation process. It calculates the present value of a company's forecasted cash flows based on selected operating model. Adjust key parameters like discount rate and terminal growth, and alter inputs such as revenue growth and margins to see their impact on valuation.

DCF Model
Base Case Scenario

The present value of cash flows over the next 5 years amounts to 32B CNY. The present value of the terminal value is 147.4B CNY. The total present value equals 179.3B CNY.
Forecast Period
Years
Discount Rate
%
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Terminal Growth
%
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DCF Value Calculation

This stage translates the present value into DCF value per share. For firm valuation models, it adjusts present value for debt and assets to derive equity value (skipped if using equity valuation model). Finally, this equity value is divided by the number of shares to determine the DCF value per share.

Present Value to DCF Value
Capital Structure

Present Value 179.3B CNY
+ Cash & Equivalents 10B CNY
+ Investments 22.8B CNY
Firm Value 212.2B CNY
- Debt 11.1B CNY
- Minority Interest 752.1m CNY
Equity Value 200.3B CNY
/ Shares Outstanding 805.9m
Value per Share 248.59 CNY
CNY / EUR Exchange Rate 0.1259
ZTOB DCF Value 31.31 EUR
Undervalued by 38%

Valuation Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis assesses how changes in key factors like revenue growth, margin, and discount rate affect a stock's DCF value. By visualizing various scenarios, from significant downturns to optimistic growth, this tool helps you understand potential valuation shifts, aiding in risk assessment and strategic decision-making.

DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation

Revenue
56B 74.3B
Operating Income
12.7B 16.7B
FCFF
6.3B 9.5B

What is the DCF value of one ZTOB stock?

Estimated DCF Value of one ZTOB stock is 31.31 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 19.4 EUR, the stock is Undervalued by 38%.

The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.

How was the DCF Value calculated?

1. Present Value Calculation. Utilizing the DCF operating model, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc's future cash flows are projected and then discounted using a chosen discount rate to determine its Present Value, which is calculated at 179.3B CNY.

2. DCF Value Calculation. The company's capital structure is employed to derive the total Equity Value from the previously calculated Present Value of the cash flow. This Equity Value, when divided by the total number of outstanding shares, yields the DCF Value of 31.31 EUR per share.

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